Week Ahead: PCE, Jobs Report, Micron and a 5.17% 10 Year

This is a massive week. We get the Fed’s favorite inflation number on Wednesday morning, Micron earnings Wednesday night, and the September jobs report on Friday. The third quarter also ends Wednesday. And under all of it, the 10 year Treasury yield just hit 5.17%. That is the number I care about most, and I want to walk you through why, day by day, so you know what to watch.

Last week was not a down week

The S&P 500 closed Friday up half a percent and finished the week up 1.21% at 7,743.41. The Nasdaq was the strongest of the three, up 2.06% at 27,068.72, with back to back record closes on the 21st and 22nd. The Dow jumped 478 points on Friday alone to 51,828.62 and snapped a three week losing streak.

The one loser was the Russell 2000. Small caps fell about half a percent to around 2,844. Rate sensitive names are wearing the long end of the bond market. The VIX fell 5% on the day to 14.87. Equity volatility is asleep.

When the Fed raised rates, I told everybody I did not expect the market to go down. I expected it to go up until about the beginning of October. We are almost there. I had that date circled on the calendar. I am not overly concerned yet, but there are some numbers I want to see as we move into the last day of September and the first day or two of October, and I will update you as we go.

The number that matters: the 10 year at 5.17%

Here is the part that matters. The 10 year Treasury yield is now 5.17%. It was 4.995% a week earlier, so it added 18 basis points in five sessions. The 30 year Treasury is at 5.49%, the highest level since 2004, which is a 22 year high. Stocks went up while the 10 year did that. Those two things do not usually stay friends for long.

I have been saying this in my real estate videos and I will say it again. Anything above 5% on the 10 year is an emergency situation for the stock market. The higher the cost of borrowing, the harder it is on companies and on stocks. Well, we went right past 5%, we are at 5.17%, and the market has not capitulated yet. I do not think it is a question of if. I think it is a question of when.

The bond market is already moving. The MOVE index, which measures bond volatility, jumped almost 10% in one session and about 33% in two. Meanwhile the VIX sat still at 14.87. That gap between bond fear and stock calm is the whole story this week, and it shows up in your mortgage too: Freddie Mac says 7.03% and the daily read from Mortgage News Daily is 7.43%.

Wednesday morning: PCE inflation decides October

Wednesday at 8:30 in the morning Eastern, the August PCE report comes out. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the input that decides what they do in October. Wednesday tells us, and the market will price it in right away.

Here is what is expected. Headline PCE month over month is expected at plus 0.4%, double the prior reading of plus 0.2%. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy and is the one the Fed actually watches, is expected at plus 0.3% against a prior of plus 0.2%. The July annual numbers were 3.7% headline and 3.3% core. The Fed’s own September projection for 2026 is 3.7% headline and 3.4% core, so Wednesday is a scoreboard on their own forecast.

I am going to tell you where I stand right now. I am negative. I think the market response on Wednesday is going to be a negative one, and I think it could be the beginning of something that is not as good as everybody wants. That is my opinion. Maybe I am wrong. I do not think I am, but maybe I am. Be careful.

Friday morning: the September jobs report

Friday at 8:30 we get the September jobs report. About 100,000 jobs are expected against 162,000 last time, with unemployment seen ticking to 4.2%. The last report was hot, and they revised the prior month up too. The whole day belongs to payrolls.

Wednesday night: Micron and the end of the quarter

Micron reports Wednesday after the close. Consensus is about $31 a share on about $50 billion in revenue, but the number that matters is next quarter’s guidance, where the bar is $55 billion. Micron is up roughly 266% this year and trades near $1,080. The implied move is about 8%, and it is the purest read on artificial intelligence memory pricing there is.

Now read this next part twice. September 30 is the last trading day of the third quarter. That means quarter end marks, pension rebalancing and the closing auction all land on the same day as the inflation print and Micron. That could be a massively volatile day. One thing that is not this week is the big index rebalance. That already traded on September 18, so it is behind us.

The full week, day by day

All times are Eastern.

• Monday, September 28: Dallas Fed manufacturing at 10:30. Governor Barr speaks at 10:05. Jefferies reports after the close.
• Tuesday, September 29: Case Shiller home prices at 9:00. Job openings and consumer confidence at 10:00. CarMax before the open. New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 2:00 with questions after. That is the speech that matters.
• Wednesday, September 30: PCE and the third estimate of second quarter GDP at 8:30. ADP employment at 8:15. Chicago purchasing managers at 9:45. Micron after the close. The quarter ends.
• Thursday, October 1: Jobless claims at 8:30. Freddie Mac mortgage survey at noon. Vice Chair Jefferson speaks at 1:30. Nike and Accenture report.
• Friday, October 2: The September jobs report at 8:30. Nothing else.

The Fed odds moved again over the weekend

Pull up the rate odds right before you read this, because they move all day. Over the weekend, the odds of another quarter point hike on October 28 moved from about 62% to about 67%. The odds of at least one more hike by the December 9 meeting are about 78%. Note the wording. That is at least one more hike by December, not a hike at the December meeting. People botch that all the time.

Then look at the dot plot. Sixteen of nineteen policy makers penciled in at least one more hike this year, and the 2026 median of 4.1% implies exactly one. It looks more and more likely they are going to raise. You can count your chickens on this one. They are hatched.

Two Fed speakers matter. John Williams on Tuesday will spill some beans, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson follows Thursday. Chair Warsh is not on the calendar this week. The next time you hear from him directly is the October 28 press conference.

The third quarter was a very narrow one

The quarter closes Wednesday, and with three sessions left it has been narrow. The S&P 500 is up 3.9% for the quarter. The Nasdaq is up 3.3%. The Dow is on track to close the quarter lower by almost a full percent, down 0.9%. The Russell 2000 is down 6%. Two large cap indexes up three to four percent while the Dow goes negative and small caps lose six. That gap is rates doing their work, and it is the cleanest explanation of the quarter there is.

One valuation point people miss. The forward price to earnings ratio fell from 20.4 on June 30 to 19.1, below the five year average of 19.8. Earnings did that, not price. The market is not as pricey as it was.

The weekend headline that took Friday’s rally apart

Friday’s rally was built partly on hope for a deal around the Strait of Hormuz. We did not get it. There were offers and the President said no, so that offer was rejected over the weekend. That strait carries about one fifth of the global oil supply. Ships are still getting attacked and transit is still a problem. Watch this above almost anything else.

QQQ, XRP and HYPE on the bread recipe

I look at charts with what I call my bread recipe: the 5, the 13 and the 50 day exponential moving averages. When price is above all three and they are stacked in order, the trend is bullish. When price starts losing them one by one, that is my warning system.

QQQ is above the 5, the 13 and the 50. It is bullish right now. But it just bounced off what I call a double crust and it is breaking out of the top Bollinger band. Normally, within a few weeks of that, we come back to the 13. We are way above it in an overbought market. That makes me nervous.

XRP is the one I watch by market cap, not price. It lost the 5 EMA and is now looking at the 13. The market cap sits at about 94 billion, and I am expecting 93 billion really soon, which means the price comes down. I always notice that crypto tends to lead. When it starts to run, the stock market gets stronger. When it rolls over first, stocks tend to get hit a little bit after.

HYPE is in the same spot. It was up around 95 to 97 and is now about $90, sitting right on the 13. That is where I like to add, because I am bullish on it longer term. But if it flips below the 13 and confirms, that changes everything. Maybe I lock in some gains. What I want is a bounce off the 13. What I do not want is to lose the 50.

I am going to take some risk this week. I am making major changes to my portfolio. Buckle up. I think it gets bumpy very soon.

Five earnings that actually tell you something

• Micron, Wednesday after the close: about $31 a share on about $50 billion. The number that matters is next quarter’s guidance, with a bar of $55 billion.
• CarMax, Tuesday before the open: the widest expected move of the week at almost 12%. Used car pricing and subprime auto credit are a real read on the low end consumer.
• Accenture, Thursday before the open: the best single read on what companies are actually spending on technology.
• Nike, Thursday after the close: consumer discretionary is the worst sector of the year and Nike is the bellwether.
• Jefferies, Monday after the close: the first read on Wall Street trading and deal making.

The levels that would change my mind this week

None of this is a prediction. It is a list of levels I can point at on a chart.

• HYPE upside: reclaiming the green 5 EMA at 91.67 on a daily close is the first sign the pullback is over.
• HYPE downside: the red 50 EMA at 80.99. That is a long way below. Lose it and I stop calling this a pullback.
• XRP market cap: back above the 5 EMA at $95.46 billion puts the short term trend right side up again. The 13 EMA at $93.22 billion is the warning line, not the 5.
• QQQ: the 5 EMA at 739.31. While price holds above it, the stack stays in the right order.
• The 10 year: if it closes back under 5%, every chart on this list gets easier. If it goes to 5.3%, every chart gets harder.

Get the 10 year back under 5% and we are good. Until then, I am watching, and I am careful.

Keep reading on Stock Moe

• Mortgage Rates Hit 7.50%: 54 Cities Falling, No Crash Yet
• My 10 Year Mortgage Rate Forecast: 6.6% in 2027, 6.1% by 2031
• SpaceX Lockup Expiration: The October 9 Unlock Explained

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Sources

• Index closes Friday, September 25, 2026, with weekly changes computed from the September 18 closes
• Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule and consensus from three trackers for August PCE
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, ISM, Federal Reserve Board and New York Fed calendars, September 2026
• CME FedWatch via trackers, and the Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections dot plot, September 2026
• US Treasury yields, Saxo Bank MOVE index read, Freddie Mac and Mortgage News Daily, September 2026
• Quarter to date returns computed from June 30 closes, FactSet valuation data
• Company earnings calendars, Benzinga implied moves, Kiplinger earnings calendar
• Levels from TradingView daily charts, September 27, 2026

I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this article is financial advice. Everything here is my own opinion, for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and talk to a licensed professional before you make any financial decision.