SpaceX Lockup Expiration: The October 9 Unlock Explained

On October 9, up to 328.4 million SpaceX shares become eligible to sell. At the September 30 close of $150.86, that is about $49.5 billion of stock that could not be sold the day before. This is not a rumor. It is written by name and date in the lockup table inside SpaceX’s own prospectus. In this article I will walk you through the whole unlock schedule, what the stock did the last three times, and the December number that almost everybody is quoting wrong.

Where SpaceX stock stands today

Before we talk about the unlock, you need to know where the stock is. SpaceX, ticker SPCX, closed at $150.86 on September 30, up $1.62 on the day. September ran from $140.71 to $150.86, a gain of about 7.2% for the month.

The 52 week range is $104.83 to $225.64. So the stock is about 33% off its high and only 11.7% above the $135 IPO price. The market cap is about $2.05 trillion on 13.57 billion shares outstanding.

I have been in and out of this one. We sold up around $208. Then we rode it down and tried to catch the bottom. I did not, and I took a little hit. Since then I have been watching patiently. I am not out of the game. I am waiting for the right entry, and I think it is months away, maybe only weeks. It is not years.

A quick look back at the IPO

SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026 at $135 a share. It sold 638.9 million Class A shares, including the full overallotment, for about $85.7 billion. That made it the largest IPO in history. The first day close was $161.

It joined the Nasdaq 100 on July 7 on the fast track. It does not qualify for the S&P 500, because it is still losing money. If you still think you cannot buy SpaceX, you are a year behind. It trades like any other stock now.

Why the unlock matters so much for SpaceX

Here is the part that makes this a big deal. A company this size usually has most of its stock already trading freely. SpaceX does not. A huge share of its stock is still locked up.

Think about supply and demand. When you add more shares that can be sold, you better hope demand keeps up. If it does not, it puts pressure on the price. Put the October 9 number next to the IPO. About 639 million shares were sold on IPO day. On October 9, about half that amount becomes eligible to sell in a single day.

I am a big fan of this company. I even wear the hat. But I do not want anybody thinking this is just a normal stock in a normal market. The unlock schedule is the single biggest thing hanging over this stock between now and Christmas.

The full SpaceX lockup schedule

Every one of these dates comes from the lockup release table in the Form 424B4 prospectus, which SpaceX filed with the SEC on June 12. Here is the whole thing:

• August 6: up to 911.5 million shares. I covered this one back in August.
• August 20 and September 9: up to 319.0 million shares each.
• September 10: up to 59.1 million shares for affiliates.
• September 24: up to 328.4 million shares.
• October 9: up to 328.4 million shares, about $49.5 billion and 2.42% of shares outstanding.
• October 24: up to 328.4 million shares, about another $49.5 billion. October as a whole is about $99.1 billion.
• Two trading days after third quarter results: up to 1.3 billion shares, about $196.1 billion. The date is not confirmed. I expect results in early November.
• December 8: up to 797.6 million shares, about $120.3 billion.

Add up what is still coming through December 8 and you get roughly 2.75 billion shares, worth about $415.5 billion at today’s price. The one after third quarter results is the one that has me scared. That is 1.3 billion shares. These earlier dates are stepping stones to the big ones.

What the stock did around the last three unlocks

The good news is we do not have to guess anymore. We have a sample.

• August 20: the stock fell about 4%, then rebounded the next session.
• September 9: down 3.9%.
• September 23: down 4.11%. That was the day before the September 24 release, not the day of.

That last one is the detail most people missed. The selling pressure has been showing up a session or two ahead of the date as traders position for it. The market front runs the unlock.

Here is the key. It recovers. In every case so far, the stock found buyers within a session or two. None of these turned into a long slide. September is the proof. Two unlock dates landed inside the month, and the stock still finished up about 7.2%.

The December 8 number most people have wrong

This is the one that drives me nuts. People keep saying December 8 is another 328 million share event. It is not.

The prospectus gives that date two possible numbers. The smaller one only applied if SPCX had closed at or above $175.50 in a qualifying window back in August. The actual closes were $125.33, $108.27 and $114.92. It never came close. So the bigger number applies.

December 8 is 797.6 million shares. That is more than double what is being reported. At today’s price that is about $120.3 billion in one day. December 8 is also the 180th day after the IPO, and it is the last one I am waiting for before I take my long term position.

An unlock is not a sell order

Every line in the filing says “up to.” That matters. An unlock means holders are allowed to sell. It does not mean they will. Most of these holders are not going to dump their shares.

But the market prices in the possibility anyway. That is why you see selling before the date. Not many people look at an unlock and think it is a buying opportunity. A lockup is a supply story, not a company story. It does not mean the business is going bad.

There is more after December. By next summer, Elon and other insiders are unlocked too. Then they can do what they want. And it takes a lot of money to move people to Mars and the Moon and to mine asteroids. My personal opinion is that SpaceX and Tesla merge next year, as an equal merger. That is something I think Elon wants. To be clear, nothing has been proposed. It is just my speculation.

The business is growing fast

Now for the company itself. Second quarter revenue was $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year. That beat the $6.83 billion estimate. I love that.

The loss per share was 9 cents, against an expected loss of 26 cents. That is a big beat on the bottom line for a growing company. Trailing twelve month revenue is $23.04 billion, up 121.9%. Net income over that time was a loss of $8.89 billion. Let us be honest. It is still losing money, and that is exactly why it cannot join the S&P 500.

35 analysts cover the stock. Their average target is $222.42, about 47% above the September 30 close. The full range runs from $75 to $800. When the spread is that wide, it tells you nobody really knows. There is also a lot of competition out there, so keep your eyes open.

Starship just reached orbit

On September 28, Starship Flight 14 lifted off at 8:49 AM Eastern and became the first Starship ever to reach orbit. Congratulations to the team. It deployed all 26 of the new generation Starlink satellites it was carrying. The booster splashed down in the Gulf, and the ship came down in the North Pacific.

This matters for the stock. Starship is the vehicle the whole Starlink expansion depends on. Starlink is the revenue engine that doubled this company’s top line. A flight that reaches orbit and deploys a full stack of satellites is the proof the business model needs.

What is not happening

I would rather you hear this from me than get burned by a rumor.

• No short squeeze. Short interest is about 160 million shares, only 1.23% of shares outstanding, with about 2 days to cover. There is nothing to squeeze.
• No Tesla merger yet. I think it happens, but nothing has been proposed.
• No Starlink IPO. Musk has publicly called those discussions false. There is no spinoff on any calendar.
• No index catalyst. The Nasdaq 100 inclusion already happened on July 7. It is not coming again.
• No pre IPO shares. You cannot buy pre IPO SpaceX anymore. That is done.

What I am doing about it

Based on the last three unlocks, the move has been showing up in the session before the release. So I will be watching the day before October 9, maybe two days before. Then comes the October 9 release itself, then October 24, then the third quarter release, which I expect in early November.

December 8 is the big one, and that is what I am watching most. Once the lockups are behind us, this is a company I can get behind for the long term. The lockup has to end first.

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Sources

• SpaceX Form 424B4 prospectus, filed with the SEC on June 12, 2026, including the lockup release table
• SPCX closing prices through September 30, 2026
• SpaceX second quarter 2026 results
• Analyst price targets and short interest data as of September 30, 2026
• SpaceX Starship Flight 14, September 28, 2026

I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this article is financial advice. Everything here is my own opinion, for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and talk to a licensed professional before you make any financial decision.