Title card reading How to Bet on Midterm Elections on Kalshi, a Stock Moe 2026 midterms guide

Kalshi Midterms 2026: Odds and How to Trade Them

ByStock Moe

Last updated October 30, 2026. By Stock Moe, former financial advisor, MBA and finance teacher.

Disclosure: Some links on this page are affiliate links. If you open an account through them, Stock Moe gets paid by Webull or Kalshi at no extra cost to you. I only link to products I use myself. This is not financial advice.

Yes, you can trade the Kalshi midterms and bet on midterm elections in the US on Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange, by buying yes or no contracts on who controls the House, who controls the Senate, the overall balance of power and individual races. Each contract pays $1 if you are right. As of 2:07 PM Eastern on October 30, 2026, the last trade on Kalshi had Democrats winning the House at 93.1 cents and the Senate at 71 cents. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

I am not here to tell you who to vote for or who will win. I am a finance teacher and a former financial advisor, and what I care about is the mechanics: what these contracts are, what they cost, when they pay, and the traps that catch first time election traders. If you are brand new to Kalshi, start with my guide on how Kalshi works for beginners, then come back here.

Key takeaways

  • All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on November 3, 2026.
  • Kalshi lists House control, Senate control, a combined balance of power market and individual races.
  • Control markets can settle early on a consensus of media calls. Otherwise they settle on February 1, 2027, so your money can be tied up for months.
  • Election contracts on Kalshi are allowed under federal law after a 2024 court ruling, but at least 32 states have their own election betting laws, and Kalshi bars candidates, campaign staff and party employees from trading these markets.
  • A price is the market’s estimate, not a sure thing. A 68 cent contract still loses about 32% of the time if the price is right.
  • Event contracts can lose money. Trade only money you can afford to lose.

Jump to a section:

At the federal level, yes, on a regulated exchange. In 2023 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission blocked Kalshi from listing contracts on which party would control Congress. Kalshi sued. On September 6, 2024, Judge Jia Cobb of the US District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that the CFTC had gone beyond its authority, according to a legal summary by Davis Wright Tremaine. The CFTC appealed, and in May 2025 it asked to drop that appeal. The appeals court dismissed the case on May 7, 2025, Covers reported.

States are a different layer. The National Conference of State Legislatures counts at least 32 states plus the US Virgin Islands with laws against election betting in at least some situations, in a brief updated August 21, 2026. NCSL also notes there is an open debate about whether those laws reach prediction markets at all, and it names Minnesota as the one state that specifically bars election wagering in prediction markets, for candidates. Some election offices have also told poll workers or employees not to use these markets.

Kalshi adds its own rules on top. Its House control market lists people who may not trade it, including candidates and their immediate families, paid campaign staff, campaign vendors and consultants, paid employees of party committees and PACs, and lobbyists working for those groups. If you work on a campaign or in elections, this is not for you. Kalshi is available only where it operates and only to adults 18 and older. None of this is legal advice, so check your own state and your own job rules first.

The midterm markets Kalshi offers

Kalshi’s own guide to trading elections lays out four kinds of midterm markets.

  • House control. Which party will control the House. All 435 seats are up, and 218 is a majority.
  • Senate control. Which party will control the Senate. Thirty five seats are on the ballot this year.
  • Balance of power. A combined market with four outcomes: Democrats sweep, Republicans sweep, Democratic House with a Republican Senate, or Republican House with a Democratic Senate. A combination only pays if every part of it comes true.
  • Individual races. Single Senate, House and governor races, state by state.

How control markets settle

This is the detail that surprises people. Kalshi says the House and Senate control markets may be decided early based on a consensus of media calls. If not, they are settled by the party of the Speaker of the House and the party of the Senate president pro tempore on February 1, 2027. So if a race is close and the call drags out, your money can sit in that contract until February unless you sell it first. Read the rules tab on every market before you buy, because the exact wording decides who gets paid.

What the market is pricing right now

Here is where the balance of power market traded at 2:07 PM Eastern on October 30, 2026, using the last trade price from Kalshi’s public market data. Because only one of the four outcomes can happen, the four prices add up to about $1.

Kalshi midterms balance of power prices on October 30, 2026, Democrats sweep 68 cents, Democratic House and Republican Senate 26 cents, Republicans sweep 5.9 cents, Republican House and Democratic Senate 0.8 cents
Kalshi balance of power market, last trade prices at 2:07 PM ET on October 30, 2026.

Read that chart like a set of odds. The market puts a Democratic sweep of both chambers at about 68%, a split with a Democratic House and a Republican Senate at about 26%, a Republican sweep at about 6%, and the reverse split at under 1%. The single chamber markets tell the same story: Democrats at 93.1 cents to win the House and 71 cents to win the Senate, against 7.1 cents and 30 cents for Republicans, at the same time.

Two warnings. First, these numbers move every minute, so treat them as a snapshot, not a forecast I am making. Second, a market favorite is not a lock. Markets have been wrong before, and a 69 cent price means the other side still wins about three times in ten if the price is fair.

How to bet on midterm elections on Kalshi, step by step

Here is how I would place a first midterm election trade on Kalshi, using the rules and fees Kalshi publishes as of October 22, 2026.

  1. Check that you are allowed to trade

    You must be 18 or older with a US residential address, and you must not be on Kalshi’s list of prohibited traders for election markets, such as candidates, campaign staff or party employees. Check your state’s rules and your employer’s rules too.

  2. Open and verify your Kalshi account

    Sign up, confirm your email and phone with the six digit codes, and verify your identity with your Social Security number and, if asked, a photo ID. Review can take up to 24 hours if your application is flagged.

  3. Read the offer terms, then fund the account

    If you came through a referral link, read the current offer terms on Kalshi first. Kalshi’s election guide lists a $10 minimum for bank and card deposits, no deposit fee on bank transfers, and up to a 2% fee on debit cards.

  4. Open the Elections section and pick one market

    Choose House control, Senate control, the balance of power market or a single race you know well. Fewer, better choices beat a dozen small guesses.

  5. Read the rules tab

    Check the exact question, the settlement source and the settlement date. For control markets, the fallback date is February 1, 2027, so plan for your money to be tied up that long.

  6. Place a limit order

    Pick Yes or No, choose a limit order, set the most you will pay, and enter your number of contracts. Check the fee on the order screen before you submit.

  7. Follow it on election night, then settle or sell

    Prices move fast as results come in. You can hold until the market settles or sell early at the current price if someone is buying. Winning contracts pay $1 each to your balance.

Want to follow the midterms with real prices? Open a Kalshi account through my link (affiliate link, I get paid if you sign up). As of October 25, 2026, Kalshi’s sign up page for my link says “Your friend sent you $50 on Kalshi” and “Trade $25 to unlock your bonus.” Any new account offer is subject to Kalshi’s current terms and eligibility. Kalshi’s referral FAQ says offers vary, “up to” amounts are maximums, and applying a code does not guarantee a bonus, so read the offer page before you deposit.

What $25 does in three different midterm markets

These use the October 22 prices and Kalshi’s general fee formula from its fee schedule dated July 7, 2026: 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 minus price), rounded up to the next cent. They are math examples, not picks.

The favorite: Senate control at 68 cents

Buy 35 contracts at 68 cents. Cost: $23.80. Fee: $0.54. Total: $24.34. If that side wins, you collect $35.00, a profit of $10.66. If it loses, you lose $24.34.

The split: balance of power at 23 cents

Buy 100 contracts at 23 cents. Cost: $23.00. Fee: $1.24. Total: $24.24. If that exact combination happens, you collect $100.00, a profit of $75.76. If either chamber goes the other way, you lose $24.24.

The long shot: House control at 9 cents

Buy 250 contracts at 9 cents. Cost: $22.50. Fee: $1.44. Total: $23.94. If that side wins, you collect $250.00. The market says that happens less than one time in ten, so most of the time the full $23.94 is gone.

Notice that the fee eats a bigger share of your money on the cheap contracts, and that the big payout only matters if the real chance is higher than the price. Past results do not predict future results.

A five question checklist before your first election trade

When I taught investing, I made students answer a few questions in writing before they could make any trade in our class portfolio. It slowed them down in a good way. Here is the same idea for election markets.

  • What exactly am I buying? Write the question in your own words, including the settlement date.
  • Why do I think the price is wrong? If your only reason is “my side is going to win,” that is a hope, not a reason.
  • What would make me sell early? Pick a price or a piece of news that would change your mind before you buy.
  • Can I live with losing all of it? If the answer is no, make the trade smaller or skip it.
  • Am I allowed to trade this? Check Kalshi’s prohibited list, your state and your employer.

If you cannot answer all five in a sentence or two, wait. The market will still be there tomorrow, and the cost of waiting is usually just a few cents of price.

What moves election markets

  • New polls and forecasts. A surprising poll in a key state can move a Senate price several cents in minutes.
  • Early vote and turnout data. Traders watch reported early voting numbers closely in the last two weeks.
  • Election night results. This is where prices move the most, often in big jumps as counties report.
  • Calls, recounts and runoffs. A close race that is not called can leave a market open for days or weeks, and a runoff can push a decision past election night.

The lesson is that election markets are not a set it and forget it trade. If you want the option to sell early, you need to watch the price, and on election night the gap between buyers and sellers can get wide.

The rules I follow on election markets

  • Do not bet your politics. The market does not care who you want to win. If you cannot separate your hopes from your read, skip it.
  • Size it like an entertainment budget. Start with $25. Never use money for bills, savings or debt payments.
  • Use limit orders. Election night spreads can be wide. Decide your price before you click.
  • Plan for the money to be locked up. A close race can hold your cash until February 1, 2027.
  • Stay off it if you work in elections or on a campaign. Kalshi’s rules bar many of those roles, and so may your employer.

How I use election odds in my market work

I watch election markets for the same reason I watch Fed odds: they tell me what the market already expects, so I know what would be a surprise. A surprise is what moves stocks, bonds and mortgage rates. I wrote about that idea with rates in mortgage rates at 7.40% before the Fed decision, and I used Kalshi prices to reality check a crypto target in my XRP price prediction with the real odds.

Every Sunday I go through the dates and numbers that can move markets in the week ahead, and the midterms are on that list through November. Get the free Stock Moe Sunday Letter here.

Trade the midterms on Kalshi through my link (affiliate link, I get paid if you sign up). As of October 25, 2026, that page offers a $50 bonus after you trade $25. Offers are subject to Kalshi’s current terms and eligibility. Kalshi is available only where it operates and only to adults. Trade only money you can afford to lose.

Common questions about betting on the midterm elections

Can you bet on the midterm elections?

Yes, on Kalshi, a CFTC regulated exchange, if you are 18 or older, live where Kalshi operates and are not on its list of prohibited traders. Kalshi lists markets on House control, Senate control, the balance of power and individual races for the November 3, 2026 election.

Is election betting legal in my state?

It depends. NCSL counts at least 32 states with election betting laws, but there is an open debate about whether those laws reach federally regulated prediction markets. Check your state and your job rules, and talk to a lawyer if you are unsure.

When do Kalshi midterm markets pay out?

Control markets can settle early on a consensus of media calls. If not, Kalshi settles them on February 1, 2027, by the party of the Speaker and the Senate president pro tempore. Winning contracts pay $1 each.

Who is not allowed to trade Kalshi election markets?

Kalshi bars candidates and their immediate families, paid campaign staff, campaign vendors and consultants, paid party and PAC employees, and lobbyists working for them from trading those markets, among others listed in each market’s rules.

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Sources

I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this article is financial advice. Everything here is my own opinion, for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and talk to a licensed professional before you make any financial decision.

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Stock Moe is a former financial advisor who worked at one of the largest financial firms in the country before moving into teaching. He holds an M.B.A. and an M.Ed. in Business Education, taught college and high school finance, and has coached teams to 15 state and 2 back to back national Stock Market Game championships. He runs the Stock Moe YouTube channel with over 720,000 subscribers, where he breaks down stocks, crypto, housing and the economy in plain English.

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