XRP Price Prediction: $1.28 Line as QQQ Breaks the 50 EMA

My XRP price prediction has not changed, but the market around it has. The QQQ just closed under its 50 day EMA, the Fed is almost certain to raise rates again in December, and energy prices are not coming down. My line in the sand for XRP is $1.28. My line for HYPE is $76. If we confirm below those levels, I have hard decisions to make, and I want to walk you through exactly how I am thinking about it.

All my XRP levels in one place: my current lines, every price target and every update live on my XRP price prediction page, updated weekly.

The Fed is almost certain to raise rates in December

I told you this when the Fed raised rates the first time. History says that after the first hike, the markets usually bottom within a few months and then recover. That has happened almost every single time the Fed has gone into a rate hike cycle. The question is what the drop looks like before the bottom, and right now it is looking ugly.

There is a little bit of good news. The odds of a hike at the October meeting have been dropping. The market does not think the Fed moves at that meeting. But look at December. As of October 16, 2026, the CME FedWatch tool had the Fed holding its target at 3.75% to 4.00% today, with about an 89% chance of a hike by the December 9 meeting. Only 11% of the money is betting on no change.

So the market is taking everything you are hearing, the inflation, the energy prices, the wars, and pricing in at least one more hike by the end of the year. That matters for every stock, every crypto and every retirement account you own.

QQQ broke the 50 EMA: this is my line in the sand

Here is what I am afraid of. When the Fed raised rates, the market ran up. They did the old rope a dope on us. They got us up high, led us astray, and then sold it off. We saw the QQQ at about $763. On October 16, 2026, it closed near $709.80, down about 2.5% in one day.

That day the QQQ broke the lower Bollinger band and absolutely crushed through it. The 5 EMA is crossing the 50 EMA. The 50 is my line in the sand. I gave it one extra day, Friday, to see if it could push back over the 5. It did not. It did the opposite. It pushed all the way down below the band. The 5 is coming down. The 13 is coming down.

So here is how I am playing it. We lost the 50 EMA, so I expect a push back down toward $661 on the QQQ. That is roughly 13% to 15% below the high, and that is my buy area. I am expecting a 10% to 15% drop at minimum, and I will not be shocked to see 20%. We are already a good chunk of the way there.

On the one month chart the Nasdaq Composite sat at 26,140.03 on October 16, down about 1.05% over the past month. That does not sound like much until you look at the last two weeks, where almost all of the damage happened.

To be blunt, the RSI is at 35. That is a little bearish, maybe too much too quick. So I would not be surprised to see one retest up to the 50 EMA, a touch, and then another push down. If it keeps bleeding into next week and the week just ends red, red, red, then $661 is where it is racing. The billionaires have had enough. They are selling, and they are going to let retail be the liquidity.

One more thing from the chart. The last time the QQQ crossed under the 50 EMA, near $706, it dropped about 6% within a week. Are we going to see the same thing here? Possibly. You should be paying attention.

XRP price prediction: $1.28 is the red line

Now get over to XRP. We already crossed below the 50 EMA, and now the 13 EMA has crossed below the 50 EMA too. Folks, these kinds of crossovers are serious. XRP was sitting near $1.31 on October 16, and the line that decides what I do is right there at $1.28.

XRP held on pretty well for a long time. Go back to August when everybody was excited about the Clarity Act and getting through the wars. Now you are starting to see it come down. If we confirm below $1.28, the question becomes simple. How much more do you want to lose? For me, that is the really big red line, and I have to make some hard decisions at that point.

I covered the $1.28 XRP support level and the 5 EMA test in detail yesterday, and nothing about that level has changed. What changed is the market around it.

Here is the mindset. I load up with risk as we go through these moves, and I wait to see if good things happen. Wars end, prices come down, and the chart turns. When they do not, I put the line in the sand and I show you the moves I am going to make to protect my portfolio. Just because you wish it will go higher does not mean it will go higher. We all wish it would. The fact is that energy is not dropping.

HYPE: $76 is the line I am watching

HYPE has a very similar setup. It was trading near $79.70 on October 16. You know the line I am watching. It is $76. If we lose $76, I am in the same boat as XRP. I have to make hard decisions.

Now, I can jump in and out depending on what happens. If we confirm below $76, I might have to de risk. Not everything, but a little bit. The 13 EMA is coming down right now and the 5 is coming down.

Here is a test I give my students. Pretend you did not know this chart was your favorite crypto. If I showed you this chart cold, would you be playing puts or calls? Anybody who has taken my class would say, “Moe, I would be on puts. I would be shorting it.” And you would be correct. The macro situation is deteriorating. Inflation is picking up. The Fed is getting aggressive. The chart is leading that way. The hard part is accepting that you need to switch gears, and for a lot of people, that is tough.

Energy and inflation are the real story

The war in Iran, Russia and Ukraine, sanctions relief on Russia, all of it is starting to show up in everyday goods and services. The inflation is real and it is not going away. The fix for energy is not going to happen overnight. It could take months and months, if not years, from what we are hearing from the experts in the field, not the politicians.

Those experts are saying the new normal for oil is $70 to $90 a barrel. That means we are most likely not going back to the beautiful sub $3 gas we had before February 28. I filled up today in central Pennsylvania and paid $4.19 a gallon. Let me know what gas costs in your neck of the woods.

Diesel is the bigger problem. Trucking and almost every heavy engine in this country runs on diesel, and I have seen it pushing toward $6.50 a gallon. Nobody can snap their fingers and make more diesel. Our storage has been whittled down over the last few years under both parties, and experts now call it a critical level.

What happens next? They are expecting higher prices for a while. There could be a little relief, not a ton, from the middle of 2027 on, when they figure they can get more diesel flowing into the market. That is when we could start to see some stability and prices slowly coming down. If the wars expand and more shipping routes get hit, you get worse pricing, worse inflation, and things go haywire. Remember, in February everybody said this would be over by March. We are in October, almost November.

How some traders are playing the drop

One of my sons switched gears a couple of weeks ago. He went into SOXS, the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF. When the chip stocks drop, that fund goes up three times as fast. He called me and told me he was up 39% this week. The kid is killing it. He is finishing a master’s degree in finance, so he loves the higher leverage plays.

On October 16, SOXS closed at $909.00. That is up 17.92% over the past month and up about 13% in a single day. From the bottom it is up something like 70%. I am looking at some of these plays myself. There are other inverse funds out there, too. Just understand that a triple leveraged fund cuts both ways, and it is built for days and weeks, not years. Let me know what you think about these plays.

Common questions

Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?

The market thinks so. As of October 16, 2026, the CME FedWatch tool priced about an 89% chance of a hike by the December 9 meeting and only 11% odds of no change. Nothing is expected at the October meeting.

What does it mean when QQQ breaks the 50 EMA?

The 50 day EMA is my line in the sand. When price closes below it and the short EMAs cross down through it, I treat the trend as broken until it recovers. The last time the QQQ did this, it fell about 6% within a week.

What is the XRP support level to watch right now?

For me it is $1.28. XRP was near $1.31 on October 16 and the 13 EMA has crossed below the 50 EMA. A confirmed close below $1.28 is where I make hard decisions.

Is it time to sell XRP and HYPE?

I am not selling everything. My plan is to de risk a little if XRP confirms below $1.28 or HYPE confirms below $76, and to add back if the charts recover. That is my plan, not advice for you.

How far could the Nasdaq fall?

My expectation is a 10% to 15% drop from the high at minimum, with $661 on the QQQ as my buy area. I would not be shocked by 20%. History says markets tend to bottom within a few months of the first Fed hike and then recover.

Keep reading on Stock Moe

• XRP Price Levels Before Swell and the Fed Decision
• XRP Support Level Held at $1.28: Now the 5 EMA Is the Test
• HYPE Price Prediction: The 50 EMA Support Line to Watch

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Sources

• CME Group FedWatch tool, target rate probabilities for the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting, as of October 16, 2026
• TradingView daily charts for QQQ, XRP/USD (Binance) and HYPE/USD (Pyth), October 16, 2026
• Google Finance, Nasdaq Composite and Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X (SOXS) quotes, October 16, 2026
• Stock Moe YouTube video, October 17, 2026

I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this article is financial advice. Everything here is my own opinion, for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and talk to a licensed professional before you make any financial decision.