XRP Price Levels Before Swell and the Fed Decision

XRP is sitting at $1.27 and Hyperliquid (HYPE) just broke under my $80 line. The next eight days decide how the rest of this year goes for crypto. Ripple’s Swell conference opens in New York on October 27, and the very next day the Fed decides on rates with hike odds near a coin flip. In this update I walk through why XRP fell 8% in a week full of good news, why the XRP ETF inflow streak just ended, the XRP price levels I am watching, what is going right and wrong at Hyperliquid, and my full game plan for October 28.

The scoreboard: a red week for XRP and HYPE

I know you are feeling pain because I am feeling it right along with you. As of October 19, 2026, here is where the four coins I track the closest stand. XRP is $1.27, down 10.0% in seven days, down 8.3% over 30 days, and down 46.2% over one year. HYPE is $77.03, down 10.9% in seven days and 15.0% over 30 days, but it is the only one of the four that is up over a year, at plus 116.3%. Bitcoin is $81,021, down 3.1% on the week. Ethereum is $2,362, down 6.8% on the week and 39.2% over the year.

Two things jump out at me. First, XRP and HYPE fell about three times harder than Bitcoin this week. When the market gets scared, the alts get hit hardest. Second, every one of these coins is still far below its all time high. HYPE is the closest at 21.4% below its $97.96 record. XRP is the worst at 65.1% below $3.65. Bitcoin is 35.7% below $126,080 and Ethereum is 52.2% below $4,946.

Why everything is red: hot inflation and a coin flip Fed

September CPI came in at 3.7%. That was above the 3.6% forecast and up from 3.4% the month before. Gasoline jumped 9.1%. Any time inflation runs hot like that, the Fed has to crush it, and that is what the market is now pricing in.

After the CPI report, CME FedWatch put the odds of a rate hike at the October 28 meeting at 51.5%. The day before the report it was 23.8%. The Fed already hiked once on September 16, so the fed funds rate is 3.75% to 4.00% right now. A second hike would take it to 4.00% to 4.25%. My read is simple. If they do not raise rates, I think the markets explode nicely higher. If they do raise, we probably see more pain first. I wrote about how the last hike hit mortgages in my piece on mortgage rates at 7.40% and the Fed decision, and crypto trades off the same yields.

XRP got three good headlines and still fell 8%

How do you get three good headlines in one week and still get hammered? Here they are. On October 12, Evernorth (ticker XRPN) listed on the Nasdaq. It holds about 473 million XRP. The stock spiked 13% intraday on day one, then gave it all back. Standard Chartered in Dubai announced custody for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger. That is a win for Ripple, but clients do not need to hold XRP for it. And the XRP ETFs took in about $8.17 million on October 8, then saw zero net flow the next day.

XRP fell 8% in the week it got all three. That is sell the news. Traders bought the rumor weeks earlier. The lesson I keep coming back to is that headlines that do not create new demand for the XRP token itself rarely move the price for long.

XRP ETF flows: the 13 week streak just ended

This is where I want you to watch. ETF flows tell you whether real money is coming in or going out. For the week ending October 16, the XRP ETFs had a net outflow of $1.84 million. That is the first outflow in 14 weeks, so the 13 week inflow streak is over. Daily, it looked like this: zero on October 12 and 13, plus $0.74 million on October 14, minus $0.11 million on October 15, and minus $2.47 million on October 16. Bitwise had led the inflows and then saw $3.75 million leave on October 15.

Keep it in perspective. The funds hold about $1.47 billion in total XRP assets as of October 16, and they have taken in $1.80 billion since launch. A $1.84 million outflow is about 0.1% of assets. One in a thousand. We can deal with that. What I do not want to see is two red weeks in a row. That would be a real signal, and we find out this Friday, October 24.

Hyperliquid: the bull case is still building

I own HYPE and the fundamentals keep getting better. Per an October 13 report, Hyperliquid has bought back more than 48 million HYPE, worth about $1.36 billion. Open interest hit a record $18 billion in September. The Bloomberg terminal now shows select Hyperliquid perp prices. Pump.fun launched Hyperliquid powered perps on October 17. Coinbase named Hyperliquid its USDC treasury deployer. And the Singapore base was confirmed after MAS said it sits outside its remit. All kinds of good things are happening.

What could hold HYPE back

Unlocks, just like XRP. On October 6, 3.75 million HYPE unlocked to core contributors, about $326 million and 1.69% of circulating supply. Those unlocks keep running into 2027 and 2028, and every time one hits you find out how many people sell. Leverage cuts both ways too. On October 17, about $51.6 million in leveraged chip stock positions were liquidated in 10 minutes while the US markets were closed. There is also a new 10 HYPE rule, a minimum delegated balance for priority fees, but it is live on testnet only with no mainnet date yet.

The big one is price. HYPE hit a record $97.96 on September 23 and now sits around $77, 21% below the high. We are right at the point where I get fearful. The fundamentals are good. The technicals are not. I look at all of it, and I use strict technical analysis so my emotions do not run the trade. If you want the longer view, read my HYPE price prediction on the 50 EMA support line.

October is brutal for XRP. Then what?

History says October is a nasty month for XRP. The median October return is down 5%. But the average November return is plus 80% and the average December return is plus 63%. If you can survive October, you might just be smiling in November and December, and that could be the start of the next cycle I keep talking about.

Big warning on those averages. A few huge years, like November 2024, drag the November and December numbers way up. The typical year is smaller. Seasonality is a tendency, not a promise. My own view is that October to November could be the ultimate lows of this cycle. If it goes the way prior cycles went, there could be one more big selloff to new lows, and then the recovery. Massive pain, then the gain.

The eight day countdown

Friday, October 24 brings the weekly ETF flow total. Two red weeks in a row would be a real signal. The Swell hackathon follows. On October 27, Swell, Ripple’s flagship event, opens at The Shed in New York City. On October 28, the Fed decision comes out, and then Swell closes. Eight days that decide the fourth quarter. And do not forget the elections coming up after that, which I think will surprise people one way or the other.

My game plan and the XRP price levels that matter

Bull case. XRP needs to reclaim $1.32. If it does, $1.45 to $1.50 comes into play. HYPE gets back over $80 and the buybacks keep absorbing supply. The Fed holds and Swell brings real XRP demand news. If HYPE gets back above $80, I will sleep well at night.

Bear case. XRP loses $1.27 with ETF outflows running two weeks. HYPE slides toward the August zone near $52. My big line for HYPE is $76 to $77, and we are sitting right in it. The Fed hikes and crypto sells off with stocks.

What I am watching. Friday’s ETF flow total. The 10 year yield and the FedWatch odds, because if the 10 year keeps climbing we see absolute crushing out there. And any Swell news that actually requires holding XRP, because that is the kind of headline that moves price.

Common questions

When is Ripple Swell 2026?

Swell opens on October 27, 2026 at The Shed in New York City, with a hackathon right before it. It closes after the Fed decision on October 28.

Will the Fed raise rates on October 28?

Nobody knows. After the hot 3.7% September CPI, CME FedWatch put the odds of a hike at 51.5%, up from 23.8% the day before. It is a coin flip. The current range is 3.75% to 4.00%.

Why did XRP drop when the news was good?

The Evernorth listing, the Standard Chartered custody deal and the ETF inflow were all priced in weeks before they landed, and none of them forces anyone to buy the XRP token. Traders sold the news and XRP fell 8% that week.

Are XRP ETF outflows a problem?

One week of $1.84 million out of $1.47 billion in assets is about 0.1%. That is not a problem on its own. Two red weeks in a row would be a signal I take seriously.

What is a good month for XRP historically?

By the averages, November (plus 80%) and December (plus 63%) have been the strongest, while October has a median return of down 5%. A few huge years inflate those averages, so treat them as a tendency and not a promise.

Keep reading on Stock Moe

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Sources

• Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2026 Consumer Price Index (via InvestmentNews), October 2026
• CME FedWatch Tool, October 28, 2026 meeting probabilities, read after the CPI report
• SoSoValue, XRP ETF daily and weekly net flows, as of October 16, 2026
• 24/7 Wall St via Yahoo Finance, Evernorth (XRPN) Nasdaq listing, October 12, 2026
• crypto.news, Hyperliquid buybacks, open interest and integrations, October 2026
• Pintu and CoinMarketCap, HYPE token unlock of October 6, 2026 and liquidation data of October 17, 2026
• U.Today, XRP monthly seasonality data, October 2026
• CoinMarketCap, XRP, HYPE, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices and drawdowns, as of October 19, 2026

I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this article is financial advice. Everything here is my own opinion, for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and talk to a licensed professional before you make any financial decision.