SpaceX Earnings: $4.4B Profit and the 1.3B Share Unlock

SpaceX earnings came out after the close on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, and the company did something it had never done as a public stock. It made money. Net income was $4.4 billion for the third quarter against a $1.1 billion loss a year ago, on revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161 percent year over year. Then on Thursday, October 22, about 1.3 billion SPCX shares come off lockup, the single biggest release in the whole schedule. The best report in company history and the biggest wave of sellable shares, in the same week. Here is what SpaceX actually reported, where the profit came from, what the unlock means, and the price levels I am watching.

SpaceX earnings: the quarter in four numbers

The third quarter ended September 30, 2026. Revenue was $14.58 billion, up 161 percent from $5.6 billion a year ago. Net income was $4.4 billion against a $1.1 billion loss in the same quarter last year. Earnings per share came in at 35 cents, and Wall Street was looking for 12 cents. Revenue also beat the $12.74 billion estimate, so this was a double beat. The fourth number, capital spending of $19.6 billion, is the rub, and I will get to it.

The stock closed at $147.79 on Tuesday and traded up to about $159 after hours, and while I was filming it bounced between $158 and $161. Call it an 8 percent pop, give or take.

The first profit since SpaceX went public

A year ago this same quarter was a $1.1 billion loss, and the full year 2025 was a $4.9 billion loss. That swing is not a rounding change. It is the first time the business has covered its own costs with room left over. About 20 years ago Elon Musk said he did not even know if this little company would make it. Now it is printing a $4.4 billion quarter. Here is where the profit came from, and it is probably not what you think.

The Super Intelligence segment turned $7.56 billion of revenue into about $5 billion of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. It grew 830 percent and finished the quarter with 1.7 gigawatts of compute installed. It is now the biggest business inside the company, bigger than Starlink and launch combined, and about four times the size of the rocket business.

Starlink is now a real margin business, running close to a 39 percent operating margin in the June quarter. The rocket business is not the engine. The Space segment did about $1.8 billion and grew 6 percent, the slowest of the three by a wide margin.

My view, bluntly: space is the final frontier, and whoever builds the company that travels out there, mines what is out there, and uses it for the advancement of humanity is going to be ferociously wealthy. I think the growth and the contracts continue.

Starlink added almost seven million subscribers in a year

Starlink is the cash machine in the middle. Connectivity ended the quarter with 13.6 million subscribers, up 89 percent from a year ago, and segment revenue of $5.2 billion, up 69 percent year over year. Starlink had about 10.3 million subscribers at the end of March and 12 million by June, so growth is still speeding up.

The number to watch is revenue per user. It is $69 a month now, down from $85, because the base is widening into cheaper markets. Volume is beating price for now. There are also 3,800 aircraft fitted with Starlink, and those aviation deals are the quiet growth lane.

The four claims management made on the call

Four things management said on the October 20 call that I am going to hold them to. One, more than a $100 billion run rate by December. That is annualized, it includes the Cursor business, and it is a forecast, not a reported number. Two, past 2 gigawatts of compute by year end. They finished the quarter at 1.7 gigawatts, so this one is close to in hand and the easiest to verify. Three, Musk said Grok Bot is the fastest growing product he has ever seen, with no subscriber or usage figure attached, so treat it as color for now. Four, the finance chief said they are targeting an investment grade balance sheet. Given what they are spending, that was the most important sentence of the call.

They spent more in the quarter than they earned in it

Profit and cash are not the same thing. Capital spending was $19.6 billion in one quarter against $14.58 billion of revenue. You cannot keep spending more than you make before it burns you. They are spending like drunken sailors.

Most of that spending is AI infrastructure: chips, power, and data center build, including the Colossus expansion. It is not rockets.

They are raising money to keep going. SpaceX has been reported seeking around $40 billion of debt to buy Nvidia chips. They are issuing stock as well. About 391 million shares went out for the $60 billion Cursor acquisition, which dilutes everybody already holding. Cash and marketable securities finished the quarter at about $90 billion, so there is a real cushion, but at this rate of spending it is not an unlimited one.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas wrote that the need for additional financing remains a key overhang for sentiment. Let me help you out, Adam. There is a 1.3 billion share unlock on top of that.

The 1.3 billion share unlock on October 22

On Thursday, October 22, the second trading day after the report, about 1.3 billion shares stop being locked up. That is 28 percent of the locked pool and the biggest tranche in the whole schedule. It is worth roughly $200 billion: $192 billion at Tuesday’s close and $207 billion at the $159.19 after hours price. It is about four times the size of the last release, and it equals 9.6 percent of all shares against 13.57 billion shares outstanding.

Free to sell does not mean they will sell. There is also a force pulling the other way: as the float grows and the stock makes up more of the liquidity out there, the ETFs that hold it buy more.

What should happen? In my opinion the stock should drop 1 to 3 percent, and only that much because they crushed the numbers. Should does not mean it will.

The whole lockup calendar

Here is the full schedule for the main pool of employees and pre IPO investors, with share counts shown as maximums, from the SpaceX IPO prospectus filed June 12, 2026.

• August 6: 911.5 million shares, 20 percent, released after the second quarter report
• August 20: 319 million shares, 7 percent, day 70, released
• September 9: 319 million shares, 7 percent, day 90, released
• September 24: 328.4 million shares, 7 percent, day 105, released
• October 9: 328.4 million shares, 7 percent, day 120, released
• October 22: 1.3 billion shares, 28 percent, second trading day after this report
• October 26: 328.4 million shares, 7 percent, day 135
• December 8: about 798 million shares, the remaining 17 percent, lockup expires

Add up every release from August through October 9 and that is about what comes free in one day on October 22.

What the last unlock actually did to the stock

The September 24 unlock freed up about 328 million shares. The stock dropped as expected, down to $145.47 four sessions later. Then it ran all the way up to $171.92 eight sessions after the unlock, fell back to $147.79 going into the report, and is now running back up to around $160.

So last time the dip lasted four sessions, then it was over and the stock ran. That is the playbook I am keeping in mind. There is also a hard top around $170, only about $9 or $10 away.

Musk cannot sell a single share until June 2027

Whatever happens on Thursday, it is not Musk selling. The founder and the largest holders sit on a much longer clock. Musk comes free on June 12, 2027, a 366 day lockup with no early release. He holds about 6.4 billion Class B shares carrying ten votes each, which gives him 82 percent of the voting power on about 42 percent of the shares outstanding. Do I think he sells some then? Probably. But that is a 2027 story.

The prospectus is unusually blunt about it. The founder’s shares carry no early release provisions. The largest outside holders start getting out after the fourth quarter report and are not fully free until the second half of 2027.

Where Wall Street sits on SpaceX stock

Forty six firms cover SPCX and they cannot agree within $375. The lowest price target is $75 and the highest is $450. The average one year target is $221.44, which is about 50 percent above the October 20 close of $147.79. Out of the 46 firms, 32 have buy ratings, 9 have hold ratings, and 5 have sell ratings. They cannot make up their minds.

The bull case and the bear case from the same quarter

This one report supports both sides. The bull case: it is profitable now. The AI unit is compounding, with 830 percent growth and about $5 billion of adjusted earnings. Starlink keeps adding users. Once a company starts making money, if it controls its spending, it can last a long time.

The bear case: spending outruns revenue, a big time red flag. The share count keeps rising, with 391 million shares issued for Cursor and 1.3 billion unlocking Thursday. And one customer was 19.5 percent of revenue, on contracts that can be ended with 90 days notice. What happens if something happens to that customer?

My SpaceX price prediction and the levels I am watching

Long term, I am a buy on SpaceX. Short term, I am not trying to jump on a rocket with 1.3 billion shares coming unlocked and another 328 million right after. I will wait until it is done and let it soak in.

Three dates settle the argument for me. Thursday, October 22 and the Monday after, where volume is the tell, not price: if 1.3 billion shares come free and turnover barely moves, holders are staying put. December 8, when the final 798 million shares come free and the main pool is done. And the $100 billion run rate claim, which the fourth quarter report either backs up or does not. Once we get through December 8, I feel a lot better. Give it a couple of days, then start your dollar cost averaging. That is exactly what I plan to do, the same patient approach I laid out when I covered the SpaceX lockup expiration on October 9.

On the chart, the stock hit support around $146 three times, had the earnings, and ran up to about $160 overnight. If we get a daily closing candle under $146, I think the stock tanks, and I would play that as a short or with put options. If we break above $172, it is go time. Right now we are in the middle. Break one of those two lines and that tells me my next move.

Common questions

Did SpaceX make a profit in the third quarter of 2026?

Yes. SpaceX reported $4.4 billion of net income for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, its first profit as a public company, against a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier.

When is the SpaceX lockup expiration?

The biggest release is Thursday, October 22, 2026, when about 1.3 billion shares come free. Another 328.4 million follow on October 26, and the main pool lockup fully expires on December 8, 2026, with about 798 million shares.

Can Elon Musk sell SpaceX shares in the October 22 unlock?

No. The founder’s shares are under a 366 day lockup with no early release, so Musk cannot sell until June 12, 2027. The largest outside holders start getting out after the fourth quarter report.

What is the SpaceX stock price target from analysts?

As of October 20, 2026, 46 firms cover SPCX with an average one year target of $221.44, a low of $75 and a high of $450.

Keep reading on Stock Moe

• SpaceX Lockup Expiration: The October 9 Unlock Explained
• XRP and HYPE Update: What I Am Buying and Why
• Week Ahead: PCE, Jobs Report, Micron and a 5.17% 10 Year

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Sources

• SpaceX third quarter 2026 results and earnings call, released after the close on October 20, 2026
• SpaceX IPO prospectus filed with the SEC on June 12, 2026 (lockup schedule, share classes, voting power, full year 2025 results)
• Morgan Stanley analyst commentary from Adam Jonas, October 2026
• Consensus of 46 covering firms as of October 20, 2026
• SPCX daily closing prices, September 21 through October 20, 2026

I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this article is financial advice. Everything here is my own opinion, for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and talk to a licensed professional before you make any financial decision.