Stock market levels I am watching title card: QQQ, the S&P 500 and the market calendar, updated daily
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Stock Market Levels I Am Watching (Updated Daily)

ByStock Moe

Last updated November 6, 2026. By Stock Moe, former financial advisor, MBA and finance teacher.

This is my running list of the stock market levels and dates I am watching, updated whenever I post a new market video. As of November 6, 2026, QQQ is about 15 percent below its October high, which puts it in my 15 to 20 percent buy zone that runs down to about $610. My line for a bullish signal is QQQ back above $682, and the history still leans my way: the S&P 500 was higher twelve months after all 19 midterm elections since 1950.

Key takeaways

  • QQQ closed November 5, 2026 at $647.05, about 15.2 percent below its 52 week high of $762.86, per Webull. My buy zone is 15 to 20 percent off the high, down to about $610, with about $562 as the retest if this gets serious. Back above $682 is my bullish signal.
  • Bitcoin broke its $75,800 line, and my next area is $69,000 to $70,000. XRP is testing last week’s low near $1.20.
  • Nine midterm cycles since 1990, and the S&P 500 was higher twelve months after Election Day in all nine, averaging 16.9 percent, per YCharts data I showed on November 3, 2026.
  • In the six months after the last 20 midterms the S&P 500 averaged a 12.7 percent gain. When a Republican president lost his Congress it averaged 15.7 percent and was positive nine times out of nine, per Societe Generale data I showed on November 4.
  • The midterm year is the weakest of the four year presidential cycle, averaging about 2.8 percent since 1990.
  • Gridlock is usually fine for stocks, with one exception: a Republican president facing a Congress he does not control has averaged about 5 percent a year since 1932, per RBC Wealth Management.
  • Democrats won the House and the Senate on November 3, 2026, so we are now in that exception case.
  • My plan if you are invested: do nothing and wait. If you want to act, wait for the gap. History is a small sample, so do not bet real money on it alone.

Updates

November 6, 2026: QQQ is 15 percent off the high, so I am buying and expecting a short bounce

In my November 6 video I said not to let the bounce fool you. QQQ closed November 5 at $647.05, down 6.5 percent on the day and about 15.2 percent below its 52 week high of $762.86 from October 6, per Webull data. That is the 15 to 20 percent zone I have been talking about since QQQ was in the mid $700s, and it is where I am buying personally.

The 5 EMA is far above price, and a gap that big usually closes with a run up over the next one to three days. I think we drop again after that. The level that would make me feel better is QQQ back above $682, because that is where it should clear the 5 EMA and possibly the 13 EMA for a bullish signal. On Election Day, November 3, QQQ closed at $685.28. At 10:56 AM ET on November 6, QQQ was $658.42, up 1.8 percent, per Webull.

November 5, 2026 (evening): Nasdaq gets hit hard, my buy zone runs down to $610

Watch the video: URGENT: Stock market is crashing (XRP QQQ BTC) (November 5, 2026).

After the close on November 5 I laid out my zones. A normal correction is 15 to 20 percent off the high, and 20 percent off $762.86 is about $610. I like anywhere from here down to $610 as the buy zone. If this turns into something more serious, which it could, I expect a retest down to about $562. The 5 EMA is coming down to cross the 50 EMA on QQQ, so I am not calling the bottom, only the zone.

On XRP, we hit the 50 EMA and pulled back. XRP was holding last week’s low near $1.20 that evening, but it was $1.19 at 10:56 AM ET on November 6 per Webull, so that low is now being tested. On the Bitcoin weekly chart, the 5 EMA is crossing the 50 and the 13 never made it across. Bitcoin broke a big line at $75,800, so I think it goes lower, with the 61.8 percent retracement at $69,000 to $70,000 as my next area. Bitcoin was $75,853 at 10:56 AM ET on November 6, sitting right on that line.

November 5, 2026: Healthcare wins, defense loses and QQQ falls into my buy zone

Watch the video: Buying everything I can immediately (November 4, 2026).

In my November 4 evening video I went sector by sector through what a Democratic House and Senate mean for your money. On the November 4 close, hospitals and managed care were the biggest winners. Solar gained and then faded into the close. Defense, AI data center names and private prisons were the losers. The slide I showed had healthcare up about 20 percent and defense down about 28 percent before anyone even voted, so a lot of that trade was already made.

Here is the history I am leaning on. Societe Generale’s Manish Kabra looked at the six months after each of the last 20 midterm elections, and the S&P 500 averaged a 12.7 percent gain. In the nine cases where a Republican president lost his Congress, the average was 15.7 percent and all nine were positive. That does not fight the RBC number above: about 5 percent a year is a full term average, and 15.7 percent is the tighter six month window after the vote. Nine observations is a pattern worth knowing. It is not a law of physics.

What can this Congress actually do? Blocking a bill takes a simple majority, and Democrats have that. Passing one is different: the president still has the veto, an override needs two thirds of both chambers, and most bills need 60 votes to get past a Senate filibuster. So the sectors that need Congress to stop something, like hospitals that want Medicaid cuts stopped, have the stronger case. Defense needs new spending approved, and that is a real risk. In my opinion a government shutdown fight is likely, so be ready for it.

The selling got heavier the morning after the video. At 10:52 AM ET on November 5, Webull had QQQ at $648.78, down 6.2 percent on the day, and SPY at $738.28, down 3.7 percent. That is under the $653 level where I said I add high risk money and inside my $662 to $634 buy zone. I am sticking to my plan, but I size small, I never use money I need, and the Fed is still a bigger story than the election.

XRP update: XRP pushed up to its 50 EMA, held above the 5 EMA, and got rejected at the 50 again. More times than not, that pattern sends it back down. What I want is a daily break and hold above the 50 EMA, because that would give XRP its first higher high in weeks. Webull had XRP at $1.2388 at 10:52 AM ET on November 5. My full XRP levels live on the XRP price prediction tracker.

November 4, 2026: The blue wave, 19 for 19 and my buy zones

Watch the video: The blue wave, 19 for 19 and my buy zones (YouTube)

Democrats won the House and the Senate overnight, and Kalshi settled both control markets on the Democratic side shortly after midnight Eastern. Futures sold off as traders priced in a Democratic Congress, and tech took the worst of it. I am not scared of it. I have cash on the sidelines and I am buying.

Here is why. On the slide in my video, the S&P 500 was higher twelve months after all 19 midterm elections since 1950, with an average gain of 15.1 percent. The worst year was 1986 at 1.1 percent and the best was 1954 at 33.2 percent. Three months out the average was 7.7 percent and six months out it was 14.1 percent. Only two cycles were down three months later: 2002 at minus 7.8 percent and 2018 at minus 0.9 percent. An independent table built from Yahoo Finance closes on davemanuel.com also shows 19 higher out of 19, with 1954 the best and 1986 the worst, though its exact percentages differ a little because of the start date it uses.

My QQQ levels, from my November 3 video: the line is $681.07. A finishing candle below it opens the door to $662. Anywhere from $662 down to $634 is where I feel good buying, and about $653, roughly 15 percent off the high near $763, is where I put high risk money to work. The Fear and Greed reading I showed was 19, extreme fear. As of 12:50 PM Eastern on November 4, Webull showed QQQ at $696.19, up 1.6 percent on the day, and SPY at $768.57, up 1.9 percent, so QQQ is still above my line.

The honest risk: we had a bubble, the Nasdaq 100 is more than 10 percent off its high, and 19 elections is a small sample. Mark the date and check back in six months.

November 3, 2026: Election Day and what history says

Video: my November 3 Election Day market video.

Today every one of the 435 House seats is on the ballot, plus 35 Senate seats, 33 regular seats and special elections in Florida and Ohio. A party needs 218 seats to control the House. The presidency is not on the ballot. Here is what the record says about stocks after each outcome.

The good news first. Nine midterm cycles since 1990, and the market was higher twelve months later in every one of them, averaging 16.9 percent. The strongest year followed 1994, with a gain of over 30 percent. The midterm year itself averaged only 2.8 percent, the worst of the four years in the presidential cycle. Year one and year three have each averaged about 19 percent. We are living through that weak year two right now, and it feels like it.

Stock market returns by party control chart, average annual S&P 500 price return since 1932: Republican sweep 13%, Democratic sweep 10%, Democratic president with divided Congress 13%, Republican president with divided Congress 5%
Average annual S&P 500 price return by party control since 1932, from RBC Wealth Management, as shown in my November 3, 2026 video.

Who holds power matters, a little. Since 1932 the S&P 500 price return has averaged 13 percent a year under a Republican sweep, 10 percent under a Democratic sweep, and 13 percent with a Democratic president and a divided or opposing Congress. The outlier is a Republican president facing a Congress he does not control: about 5 percent a year. With a Republican in the White House, that means a Democratic House, a Democratic Senate or both all land in that 5 percent bucket. Only a Republican hold of both chambers lines up with the 13 percent history.

What the market is pricing. In the video I noted the prediction markets had Democrats around 94 percent to win the House and about 74 percent to win the Senate. Remember the chambers tend to move together because the same voters pull the same lever, so the sweeps are more likely than simple math suggests. Polls have been wrong before. I am not telling you who will win.

My three rules for tonight. If you are invested, do nothing and wait. If you want to act, wait for the gap and let the market show its hand. If you are worried, check the real driver: if one election result would wreck your plan, the plan was too fragile. Businesses keep trying to make money no matter who is in office. Also on my radar: AI services trimming usage credits and cheaper overseas AI competition, which I think turns AI into a price war that could squeeze these companies.

How I use this page

Each update is a dated entry at the top of the Updates section with the video, the numbers I gave, and a few sentences on what I am doing. The takeaways box above always reflects the latest entry. For the companies I cover in depth, see how to buy SpaceX stock and my mortgage rate predictions for next week. If you are picking a broker, start with my Webull review.

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Sources

I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this article is financial advice. Everything here is my own opinion, for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and talk to a licensed professional before you make any financial decision.

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Stock Moe is a former financial advisor who worked at one of the largest financial firms in the country before moving into teaching. He holds an M.B.A. and an M.Ed. in Business Education, taught college and high school finance, and has coached teams to 15 state and 2 back to back national Stock Market Game championships. He runs the Stock Moe YouTube channel with over 720,000 subscribers, where he breaks down stocks, crypto, housing and the economy in plain English.

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