Mortgage rate predictions for next week title card by Stock Moe, updated every Monday

Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next Week (Updated Mondays)

ByStock Moe

Last updated October 26, 2026. By Stock Moe, former financial advisor, MBA and finance teacher. I refresh this page every Monday.

Disclosure: Some links on this page are affiliate links. If you open an account through them, Stock Moe gets paid by Webull or Kalshi at no extra cost to you. I only link to products I use myself. This is not financial advice.

My mortgage rate prediction for next week: the Freddie Mac 30 year fixed should land between 7.20% and 7.35% when it is published Thursday, October 29, 2026, down from or close to the 7.32% it posted on October 22. The reason is simple. The 10 year Treasury fell to 4.96% on October 22, its lowest close since early October, and mortgage rates follow the 10 year. The wild card is the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28.

Every Monday I update this page with the latest weekly rate, the 10 year Treasury, the data coming out that week and my outlook. If you are locking a rate, shopping for a home or deciding whether to refinance, this is the one page to check before the week starts.

Key takeaways

  • Freddie Mac 30 year fixed: 7.32% on October 22, 2026, down from 7.40% the week before and up from 6.19% a year ago. The 15 year was 6.68%.
  • The 10 year Treasury closed at 4.96% on October 22, down from 5.13% the day before, per the St. Louis Fed FRED data.
  • My range for the October 29 Freddie Mac reading: 7.20% to 7.35%. Most of the 10 year drop happened after the window the last survey measured.
  • The big event: the Fed decides on rates Wednesday, October 28. Kalshi traders priced a 94% chance of no change as of Monday morning, but a 75% chance of a hike in December.
  • Thursday brings third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation. A hot inflation number is the biggest risk to my lower range.

Mortgage rates this week: where we start

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for October 22, 2026 put the average 30 year fixed at 7.32%, the first weekly drop since August. It had sat at 7.40% on both October 8 and October 15. The 15 year fixed was 6.68%. A year ago those numbers were 6.19% and 5.44%.

Bar chart of mortgage rate predictions context: Freddie Mac 30 year fixed by week, 6.65 percent on August 20, 6.66 on August 27, 6.71 on September 3, 6.76 on September 10, 6.95 on September 17, 7.03 on September 24, 7.28 on October 1, 7.40 on October 8, 7.40 on October 15 and 7.32 on October 22, 2026
Freddie Mac 30 year fixed rate by week, August 20 to October 22, 2026.

Look at how fast that climb was. The 30 year went from 6.65% on August 20 to 7.40% by October 8. That is three quarters of a point in seven weeks. Last week was the first sign of relief, and it was small.

My mortgage rate prediction for next week

Mortgage rates are the 10 year Treasury yield plus a spread. I break the whole rule down in How Mortgage Rates Are Set: The 10 Year Treasury Rule Explained. Here is how I apply it to next week.

  • The 10 year closed at 5.15% on October 19, 5.12% on October 20 and 5.13% on October 21, then dropped to 4.96% on October 22.
  • Freddie Mac’s weekly number is built from applications lenders submit early in the week, so the 7.32% mostly reflects a 10 year around 5.1%. That is a spread of about 2.2 points.
  • If the 10 year holds near 5.0% this week and the spread stays near 2.2 to 2.3 points, the October 29 survey lands around 7.20% to 7.35%.

So my call is a small step down or flat, not a big drop. If the 10 year bounces back above 5.1% after the Fed, I would expect the next reading to come in at the top of my range or slightly above it. If it breaks under 4.9% and stays there, the bottom of the range is in play. This is my math and my opinion, not a promise. Rates can move faster than any forecast.

What moves mortgage rates next week: the calendar

These are the releases I am watching for the week of October 26, 2026, with forecasts from the Webull economic calendar where one is listed.

  • Tuesday and Wednesday, October 27 and 28: Federal Reserve meeting. The rate decision and press conference come Wednesday afternoon.
  • Thursday, October 29: third quarter GDP advance estimate (forecast 3.2%), September PCE inflation (headline forecast 3.6% year over year, core forecast 3.1%), weekly jobless claims (forecast 200,000), a 7 year Treasury note auction, and the new Freddie Mac rate.
  • Friday, October 30: third quarter Employment Cost Index (forecast 0.8%) and the Chicago PMI (forecast 55.5).

PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A core reading above 3.1% would tell the bond market the Fed has more work to do, and that pushes the 10 year and mortgage rates up. A softer number does the opposite. Thursday is the day this week’s mortgage rate prediction gets tested.

Will the Fed raise rates this week?

The Federal Reserve calendar has the meeting on October 27 and 28. As of Monday morning, October 26, Kalshi’s market on the October decision priced “Fed maintains rate” at 94 cents, or about a 94% chance, with a 25 basis point hike at about 6%. December is a different story: Kalshi priced a 25 basis point hike at about 75%.

That is why I care more about the press conference than the decision. If the Fed holds but signals December, the 10 year can rise and wipe out last week’s relief. I explain how to read these odds in my guide to how Kalshi works.

Want to trade the Fed decision yourself? Webull’s prediction markets include an Economics category, with contracts that come from Kalshi, and I walk through it in my Webull prediction markets guide. Open a Webull account through my link (affiliate link, I get paid if you sign up). You can also trade it directly on Kalshi: sign up for Kalshi through my link (affiliate link, I get paid if you sign up). Any new account offer is subject to Webull’s or Kalshi’s current terms and eligibility, so check the offer page for the current terms before you deposit. Event contracts can lose money. Kalshi is available only where it operates and only to adults. Trade only money you can afford to lose.

What next week’s mortgage rate means for your payment

On a $334,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest run about $2,313 a month at 7.40%, $2,294 at 7.32% and $2,267 at 7.20%. That is about $46 a month between last month’s high and the bottom of my range. Helpful, but not a reason to rush a purchase you were not ready for.

For the bigger picture, including where I think rates go next year, read my Mortgage Rate Forecast 2027: Where Rates Are Headed (Updated Monthly). I update it with every month of new data.

Common questions about next week’s mortgage rates

Will mortgage rates go down next week?

My prediction is a small drop or flat. The 10 year Treasury fell to 4.96% on October 22, 2026, and I expect the Freddie Mac 30 year to land between 7.20% and 7.35% on October 29, from 7.32% on October 22. The Fed decision and Thursday’s inflation data could change that.

What is the current 30 year mortgage rate?

Freddie Mac’s survey put the average 30 year fixed at 7.32% and the 15 year at 6.68% on October 22, 2026.

When does Freddie Mac release mortgage rates?

Freddie Mac publishes its Primary Mortgage Market Survey every Thursday. The next release is October 29, 2026.

Does the Fed decision change mortgage rates?

Not directly. The Fed sets the overnight rate, while 30 year mortgage rates follow the 10 year Treasury. But what the Fed signals about future hikes or cuts moves the 10 year, and that moves mortgage rates.

Should I lock my mortgage rate now?

That depends on your closing date and how much risk you can take. If a quarter point higher would break your budget, locking removes that risk. I am not a mortgage advisor, so talk to your lender about lock terms and costs.

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Sources

I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this article is financial advice. Everything here is my own opinion, for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and talk to a licensed professional before you make any financial decision.

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Stock Moe is a former financial advisor who worked at one of the largest financial firms in the country before moving into teaching. He holds an M.B.A. and an M.Ed. in Business Education, taught college and high school finance, and has coached teams to 15 state and 2 back to back national Stock Market Game championships. He runs the Stock Moe YouTube channel with over 720,000 subscribers, where he breaks down stocks, crypto, housing and the economy in plain English.

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